Peramalan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Industri Furnitur di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing-Holt

Alfinatuzzahro Alfinatuzzahro; Wika Dianita Utami; Moh. Hafiyusholeh; Moh. Lail Kurniawan

doi:10.62383/algoritma.v2i3.64

Authors

Alfinatuzzahro Alfinatuzzahro UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya
Wika Dianita Utami UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya
Moh. Hafiyusholeh UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya
Moh. Lail Kurniawan BPS Kota Pasuruan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62383/algoritma.v2i3.64

Keywords:

Gross Domestic Product, Indonesian Furniture Industry, Double Exponential Smoothing Holt, time series, MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error)

Abstract

Furniture raw materials are still a major challenge in the industry, in line with the wishes of consumers to get good quality raw materials and soaring export demand, so there is a need for a control process to monitor the value of products using forecasting. The purpose of this study was to predict gross domestic product in the furniture industry in Indonesia in 2022. This study used secondary data on the quarterly trend of gross domestic product in the furniture industry in Indonesia 2010-2021 taken from the research industry data processed by BPS and Bank Indonesia, The method used is Double Exponential Smoothing-Holt. The results of the calculation using the double exponential smoothing-holt method obtained a value of α of 0.658 and β of 0.008 where the forecasting results for the 2022 period, namely the 1 quarter of 7.602 billion rupiah, quarter 2 of 7.676 billion rupiah, quarter 3 of 7.749 billion rupiah, and quarter 4 of 7.822 billion rupiah. Where the MAPE value is 0.737% which means forecasting has very good results.

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